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Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model inter-comparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years.

Figure 1 shows Temperature increase from an individual emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). Time series of the marginal warming in mK (=milliKelvin = 0.001 K) per GtC (=1015 g carbon) as projected by 6000 convolution-function simulations for the first 100 years after the emission. Maximum warming occurs a median of 10.1 years after the CO2 emission event and has a median value of 2.2 mK GtC−1. The colors represent the relative density of simulations in a given region of the plot.

Source:

 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002;jsessionid=BC6F9B408139804AB3587C183EE22AAC.c1.iopscience.cld.iop.org

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